Four weeks ago, I evaluated the current state of Major League Baseball, and mentioned that one of the ways to curb a non-competitive environment in the game would be to expand the postseason. The most feasible way to do that involves MLB expanding: adding two teams to bring their total to 32 teams.
Expansion to 32 allows for all sorts of intriguing possibilities: shortening the regular season (we’ll revisit this in part 2), expanding the postseason, and, most importantly, dividing the divisions up into more geographically convenient entities (improving travel) and decreasing the number of teams in each division from 5 to 4. Three divisions of five teams in each league is an odd way to divide the league. It’s antiquated, it’s confusing, and it allows nearly two thirds of the league to get away with tanking. Four divisions with four teams each makes the playing field far more competitive.
To do this, the National League also has to implement the DH, getting rid of the pitcher taking a place in the lineup. I understand traditionalists’ desire to keep the tradition of pitcher’s hitting in the lineup, but adding the DH makes economic sense for two big reasons: 1.) It creates jobs for 15 (or for the sake of expansion 16) additional DH’s, prolonging the careers of some of our favorite players, and 2.) fans appreciate offense. I understand the enjoyment of a pitcher coming through with a big hit, but those moments are few and far between. Even the worst hitters in the game today can outperform a pitcher over 600 plate appearances.
For the sake of this piece, I am moving forward with two assumptions: 1.) that the Oakland Athletics resolve their stadium issues with their proposed new stadium, and 2.) the Tampa Bay Rays, who’s stadium issues have hit a snag, are relocated. In this case, I am going to take one of the potential cities for expansion off the table and put them in Charlotte, North Carolina, making them (for now) the Charlotte Rays.
Why Charlotte?
Let me start with the obvious: relocating the Rays to Charlotte eliminates the potential problem of having to realign the divisions in a 30-team scenario. It still puts the Rays in the American League East, and in fact, makes them geographically closer to their AL East counterparts in the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays.
In addition, there are other reasons that make Charlotte the prime destination for a relocated team: 1.) they have led the minor leagues in overall attendance two of the last three years. 2.) they already have a wildly successful major league franchise based in Charlotte in the National Football League’s Carolina Panthers, and they have a National Basketball Association presence in the Charlotte Hornets. 3.) It has the 23rd largest media market in the country, ahead of six current MLB teams. Finally, 4.) North Carolina is a state already deeply engrained in baseball culture with Team USA’s headquarters in Durham, NC, strong collegiate programs in UNC and NC State, and a myriad of minor league franchises peppered throughout the state. MLB in Charlotte just makes sense.
Where to Next?
All told, there are several other destinations to house two more MLB teams. By media market size throughout North America, they are as follows:
- Mexico City, Mexico
- Montreal, QC
- Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL*
- Orlando, FL*
- Calgary, AB
- Raleigh-Durham, NC*
- Sacramento, CA*
- Portland, OR
- Vancouver, BC
- San Juan, PR
- Nashville, TN
- Indianapolis, IN
- Salt Lake City, UT
- San Antonio, TX*
- Hartford-New Haven, CT*
- Columbus, OH*
- West Palm Beach, FL*
- Greenville, SC
- Las Vegas, NV
- Austin, TX*
Already, quite a list. I haven’t even gotten to Jacksonville, FL, New Orleans, LA, Green Bay, WI, or Memphis, TN. All cities that house at least one major league sport franchise.
Notice a lot of asterisks? Well, the reason that they’re there is pretty simple, but I’ll get into that more in a second by first explaining the situation with Tampa. Tampa just lost their team, and acting in good faith as the de facto MLB Commissioner I am assuming that they will not be in consideration for expansion. If they did not want to ante up the taxpayer dollars for a new stadium for the Rays, then no right-minded investor is going to want to go near that market to put up an exorbitant expansion fee upwards of $1 billion, in addition to building a privately-funded brand new stadium in the Tampa Bay area. It isn’t going to happen anymore.
The rest of the media markets on this list are in what is considered “anti-trust” territory. Back in the 20’s, the United States Supreme Court set a legal precedent for MLB, making them one of the few entities in the entire country with an antitrust exemption. To spare you the legal jargon: they are legally a monopoly that can flex their muscle on any region they have already laid a claim for both their Major League and Minor League affiliates. The asterisked markets represent a direct competition with a Major League market. Orlando, FL would absolutely be in the Miami Marlins’ territory, Raleigh-Durham would interfere with what Charlotte is trying to do, Sacramento would have to pry themselves loose of San Francisco and Oakland’s grasp, and San Antonio, Hartford, Columbus, West Palm Beach, and Austin would all have the likes of the Astros/Rangers, Yankees, Indians/Reds, Marlins, and Astros/Rangers to deal with, respectively. Too many hoops to jump through, so let’s call them a wash.
Mexico City, Montreal, Calgary, Portland, Vancouver, San Juan, Nashville, Indianapolis, Salt Lake City, Greenville, and Las Vegas remain.
Eliminating The Rest
Let’s get a few of these cities out of the way so we can pave our way toward expansion.
Mexico City is a huge market, but if we’re being honest, there are too many issues with the market to call it a safe bet. It is consistently hotter there than any US city, excluding Phoenix, AZ and Las Vegas, NV, so a retractable-roof, AC powered stadium would be necessary in that market. Plus, it is at an extremely high elevation, which means the air is less dense and the baseball will travel more freely there. It would be a hitter’s paradise. Neither of these are the main issue to eliminate Mexico as an expansion team. Travel issues would be sure to be the hurdle that eliminates Mexico from the list. Additionally, soccer is Mexico’s behemoth sport, and baseball would need to be a sure thing to turn a profit, and I don’t think there’s enough evidence there to suggest baseball would be immensely successful there. Take Mexico City off the list.
Montreal has had a MLB team in the past: the Montreal Expos. However, they were always a small-market team that struggled to draw a crowd, and their old stadium is in desperate need of renovation or replacement. There is evidence to suggest that baseball could make a comeback in Quebec (an enthusiastic mayor and sellout exhibition games make me wonder), but it doesn’t make my final cut.
Calgary has a large enough media market, and the CFL has probably their most successful team housed in Calgary in the Stampeders, but baseball in an unestablished market is forcing me to eliminate them from contention. Vancouver is in the same boat, coupled with the fact that it’s too close to the Seattle Mariners for comfort, I imagine.
San Juan is still recovering from Hurricane Maria. Baseball is a part of the lifeblood of the US territory, but without statehood, I don’t think it has the funds or the development to successfully house a MLB franchise. Scratch San Juan from contention. Grant them statehood and give them the funds to develop as any US state would, and I think we can have a different conversation.
Indianapolis would be interesting, it has a strong MiLB following (it led all of minor league baseball in attendance in 2017 and regularly fronts strong attendance numbers). However, another team in the Midwest is not what baseball needs. Their media market only consists of the metro area. Go too far south, and you have crossover with the St. Louis Cardinals or the Cincinnati Reds. Go too far north, and you’re encroaching on the rich history of Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs fans who are not going to be shifting their allegiance anytime soon. Count them out.
Salt Lake City and Greenville are not large enough markets and are not growing enough to lead me to believe they are viable candidates for expansion.
Ah, Las Vegas. They are already seeing the success story of their expansion team in the National Hockey League in the Vegas Golden Knights (Western Conference Champions in 2017-2018) and will be welcoming the Las Vegas Raiders to the NFL in 2020. But those two sites were already being funded by taxpayer dollars, a retractable-roof, AC powered ballpark would cost their taxpayers an additional $1 billion. I don’t think you will be able to sell Las Vegas proper on this one. Even if you could, I think baseball dies in that desert as the Raiders and the Golden Knights will already be trying to establish their markets and consumer base. Another team muddies the landscape and residents and tourists alike will be torn as to where to go and who to follow. It’s too new of a market to try and expand to.
That leaves Portland, OR, and Nashville, TN, as our two sites for expansion.
Why Portland? Why Nashville?
Let’s start with Portland, they’re the easiest to establish. Portland has been trying to acquire a MLB team for a very very long time. They have been the source of several threats for relocation, and just a few weeks ago they unveiled a plan and a site to build a MLB-ready ballpark in their city. Portland is also loaded with investors ready to jump at the chance of owning a MLB franchise. With no more threats of relocation as the Rays have been moved to Charlotte, MLB has no choice but to grant Portland a bid for expansion. Welcome to the MLB, Portland Beavers.
Nashville is one of the fastest growing cities in the United States. They already have two successful franchises in the Tennessee Titans of the NFL and the Nashville Predators of the NHL, and with MLB teams in just Charlotte and Atlanta, MLB doesn’t really have a stronghold on the south. Nashville already houses a successful collegiate team with a strong following at Vanderbilt, the city itself is a tourist attraction, and the closest competing market is the Atlanta Braves. With investors lined up and ready to pull the trigger on a site adjacent to the Titan’s Nissan Stadium, this one is another no-brainer. Nashville Mountaineers, welcome to the show.
How Does This Set Up Realignment?
This allows for better realignment within the league, geographically, to make travel less of a nightmare. Let’s first start out by laying out our current 30 team league as it stands now:
AL East:
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Tampa Bay Rays
NL East:
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Washinton Nationals
- Atlanta Braves
- Miami Marlins
AL Central:
- Cleveland Indians
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals
NL Central:
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Cincinnati Reds
- Chicago Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals
AL West:
- Houston Astros
- Texas Rangers
- Los Angeles Angels
- Oakland Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
NL West:
- Colorado Rockies
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Diego Padres
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants
As you can see, there are travel issues littered in this layout. The Seattle Mariners have to travel 2,300 miles to play their division rivals in Houston. The Mets have to travel 1,300 miles to play their division rivals in Miami. This doesn’t make any sense. Add to the fact that only 33.3% of these teams make the playoffs, and it goes from not making any sense to a damn shame.
Throw two more teams into the mix, and things get much easier. I eliminated the AL/NL and am now just calling the divisions for what they are, geographically:
Northeast:
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
Appalachian:
- Baltimore Orioles
- Washington Nationals
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Cincinnati Reds
Great Lakes:
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cleveland Indians
- Detroit Tigers
- Milwaukee Brewers
Midwest:
- Chicago Cubs
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- St. Louis Cardinals
South:
- Charlotte Rays
- Nashville Mountaineers
- Atlanta Braves
- Miami Marlins
Central:
- Texas Rangers
- Houston Astros
- Colorado Rockies
- Kansas City Royals
Southwest:
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Diego Padres
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Angels
Northwest:
- San Francisco Giants
- Oakland Athletics
- Portland Beavers
- Seattle Mariners
No, it’s not perfect, but it still works on a logistical level. It also creates some new rivalries (Oakland/San Francisco, Detroit/Toronto, LA/LA, NY/NY, Portland/Seattle, Yankees/Phillies, and Chicago/Chicago all come to mind). Eight division winners, four wild card participants, and 50% of MLB receives an invitation to the postseason? I can get behind that.
Part 2 will focus on shortening the regular season schedule, part 3 will reveal how MLB has implemented expansion in the past, and what that means for teams that you care about. Coming soon.
Basebald Guy 